Proof by example and letters of recommendation

In math or statistics, proof by example does not work. One example of a phenomenon does not prove anything. For example, because 2 is prime doesn’t mean that all even numbers are prime. In fact, no even numbers other than 2 are prime. 

But in other areas proof by example is the best way to demonstrate something. One example is writing letters of recommendation. It is way more convincing when I get one example of something a person has achieved:

Kyle created the first R package that can be used to analyze terabytes of sequencing data in under an hour.

Than something much more general but with no details:

Bryan is an excellent programmer with a mastery of six different programming languages. 

In mathematics it makes sense why proof by example does not work. There is a concrete result and even one example violating that result means it isn’t true. On the other hand, if most of the time Kyle crushes his work, but every once in a while he has an off day and doesn’t get it done, I can live with that. That’s true of a lot of applied statistical methods too. If it works 99% of the time and 1% of the time fails but you can discover how it failed, that is still a pretty good statistical method…

I.B.M. Is No Longer a Tech Bellwether (It's too busy doing statistics)

I.B.M. Is No Longer a Tech Bellwether (It’s too busy doing statistics)

Facebook's Real Big Data Problem

Facebook’s first quarterly earnings report as a public company is coming out this Thursday and everyone’s wondering what will be in it. One question is whether advertisers are going to Facebook over other sites like Google.

“Advertisers need more proof that actual advertising on Facebook offers a return on investment,” said Debra Aho Williamson, an analyst with the market research firm eMarketer. “There is such disagreement over whether Facebook is the next big thing on the Internet or whether it’s going to fail miserably.”

Facebook’s unique asset is the pile of personal data it collects from 900 million users. But using that data to serve up effective, profitable advertisements is a daunting task. Google has been in the advertising game longer and has roughly $40 billion in annual revenue from advertising — 10 times that of Facebook. Since the public offering, Wall Street has tempered its expectations for Facebook’s advertising revenue, and shares closed Friday at $28.76, down from their initial price of $38.

There’s a pretty fundamental question here: Does it work?

With all the data Facebook has at its fingertips, it would be a shame if they couldn’t answer that question.

Medalball: Moneyball for the olympics

Medalball: Moneyball for the olympics

We used, you know, that statistics thingy

We used, you know, that statistics thingy